Norway v Montenegro, 8.30pm (BBC Olympics 6, Sky Channel 455 and online)

It’s the day of reckoning for Norway and Montenegro: the prize-winning veterans and the newest nation and the block.  Norway are, as the commentators never tire of saying, the current Olympic, World and European champions.  Montenegro, on the other hand, are not.

Montenegro finished 11th in last year’s World Championship, losing 28-27 to Norway in the group stages.  Nor have they troubled the medals in their two European championship appearances.  That said. all but three of their team play for Budućnost who just so happen to have won the EHF Champions League in 2012, knocking out the Norwegian giants Larvik on the way.  It goes without saying that for Montenegro to be in with a shout they will need Bojana Popovic (playing her final match before retirement) to be at the top of her game, controlling the attacks, and for Katarina Bulatovic to get opportunities to bullet in her 7m shots.  The defence we can expect to be physical.

Norway haven’t really looked like champions so far.  They qualified fourth out of their group and then had to overturn a half-time deficit to see off Brazil in the quarter finals.  The Koreans who they beat by 6 in the semi final were plagued by injuries.  But they are in the final and the title is theirs to defend.  If Montenegro need to rely on their steady build-ups and cool heads Norway will surely need to get their ridiculously effective fast-breaks to work (8/10 saw off Brazil, against Korea it was a mere 2/3).  With that weapon they may stun Montenegro into hurrying their otherwise methodical game.  A repeat of Katrine Haraldsen’s 52% save percentage probably wouldn’t go amiss either.

Google Translate has a Montenegrin newspaper describing their team’s appearance in the final as being the most significant achievement in their country’s short history; when Norway won the World Championship in 2011 it broke television viewing records.  This game matters and it should be a final that lives up to it.

My prediction?  Norway by 3.