Arpad Sterbik – the Spanish goalkeeper who would presumably like to be smiling this broadly at full time

2013 World Championship Final
Spain v Denmark

4.15pm (UK), Sunday 27 January, Palau Saint Jordi

Live on Premier Sports (Sky Channel 428 – free) and on bet365.com live streaming

So, here we are then.  The European Champions against the hosts in a battle for the world title.  Spanish handball had so much riding on its first ever hosting of the World Championship.  Despite the strength of the top teams in the Asobal the rest of the league hasn’t had such an easy ride and there were fears that the public’s attention may be wandering …  Hopefully a sell out of 16,500 in Barcelona and a clear shot on a Sunday afternoon should go some way to reminding the good people of Spain of the great game they have in their midst.  And, hopefully as well, they will get to see a classic final regardless of who emerges triumphant.

Denmark came so close two years ago.  France defeated them in extra time.  But, since then, they’ve had experience in winning despite a passionate home crowd urging them to defeat – their taking of the Euro 2012 crown came against the hometown Serbs and their deafening support.  Perhaps significantly (though perhaps not) Denmark beat Spain in the semi finals in Serbia – and whilst their matches have always been close (the average difference is under 2 goals) it is Denmark who have won six of their last seven meetings.

None of those matches were in Spain in a home World Championship though.

Spain have clearly relished the crowd.  In their match against Serbia, for example, it seemed to be the extra man forcing opposition fumbles and propelling fastbreaks in response.  When they fell behind against Germany it’s hard to see how their momentum back into the game could have been maintained without the surging insanity of the home support.  Things might have been more straightforward against Slovenia but then the Slovenes can’t have enjoyed that every moment that something didn’t go their way the crowd reacted as if someone had given the title to Spain.  For all the Spain are a strong side without the added extra the home advantage brings it would be hard to predict a victory for them.

Spain have scored the second most goals in the tournament: 245 in 8 matches.  Want to guess which team beats them and has a significantly better scoring percentage in doing so?  In Albert Rocas and Victor Tomas, Spain have two great counter-attack shooters and 7m takers.  On the other hand, Denmark have Anders Eggert who has 23/24 from the penalty line.  Both teams move the ball nicely to the wing when needed but have a good variety of attacking options – but maybe Denmark have the upper hand in being able to call on Mikkel Hansen to impose himself when needed.  His tournament has been a bit underwhelming so far by his talismanic standards – Spain will hope it remains that way.

In defence, again, they are similar but you’d have to give Denmark the edge.  Spain have a save percentage of 34%; Denmark 37%.  The stat that could be significant in a match where turnovers and pounces on mistakes could be critical is that Denmark have done a much better job at preventing opposition fastbreaks turning into goals.  Against Croatia, as well, it was noticeable that Denmark were able to (fairly) physically impose themselves into a game to prevent attacks spreading; Spain failed that test against Croatia and it resulted in their only defeat in the tournament.  They’ve not faced a similar team since but Denmark will need to be stopped somehow.

So, there will be goals.  Lots of goals.  Spain will be hoping for more and more because if the game is high scoring it’ll mean the Danish defensive strengths aren’t working and we’ll be in a shooting match that either team could win.  A tighter or more controlled game – one that silences the crowd for stretches – and you’d have to back Denmark.

But, honestly, this could go either way.

What the bookies say: Too close to call for the end of 60 minutes result; Denmark marginal favourites overall
What Handball Views says: Denmark. Spain. Denmark. Spain.